Football writer Alex Keble assesses the race for Europe, which is the closest in Premier League history at this stage of the season.
The Premier League has never been so tightly contested; has never been so open in the race to qualify for European competitions.
Third-placed Chelsea are just four points ahead of Manchester United in 13th position, a remarkably small gap that is more reminiscent of a Premier League table after four rounds of fixtures rather than 11.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
11 | +8 | 19 |
| 4 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
11 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
11 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |
Brighton
BHA
|
11 | +4 | 19 |
| 7 |
Fulham
FUL
|
11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
11 | +2 | 18 |
| 9 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
11 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 |
Spurs
TOT
|
11 | +10 | 16 |
| 11 |
Brentford
BRE
|
11 | 0 | 16 |
| 12 |
Bournemouth
BOU
|
11 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 |
Man Utd
MUN
|
11 | 0 | 15 |
We are in uncharted territory. Records, of course, have fallen.
The smallest ever gap from third place to ninth after Matchweek 11 was previously three points, a record set in 2002/03.
At the same stage this season, the teams in those positions - Enzo Maresca’s high-flying Chelsea and a mid-table Aston Villa worrying about a mini-crisis - are separated by one measly point.
The previous smallest ever gap from third to 11th was also set in 2002/03 at four points. That gap is currently three points.
And the smallest ever gap from third to 13th was six points, set two decades ago in 1993/94. It is now just four.
We’ve never been in this situation before and, better yet, we’ve never had so many European places up for grabs.
If England is awarded an extra place due to the performance of their teams in Europe, the side finishing fifth this season will earn a UEFA Champions League spot. This could lead to the team in eighth place entering the UEFA Europa Conference League, if the FA Cup and EFL Cup are won by teams already qualifying for Europe via their league position.
Here, we look at the teams who are currently in the top 13, competing for those eight places.
Chelsea and Arsenal likely to pull clear
The aforementioned 1993/94 and 2002/03 seasons, when records were set for Matchweek 11, ended with relatively normal gaps between teams. History shows the cream should rise to the top by May, and Arsenal and Chelsea in particular are likely to pull away this season.
Arsenal should be considerably stronger with Martin Odegaard now back from injury. The captain's return, along with their still-excellent defensive set-up, suggests they will finish comfortably in the top four at the very least.
Mikel Arteta’s side surely haven’t dropped off so much as to miss out on the Champions League altogether. Over time, we should see them rejoin Manchester City and Liverpool.
Chelsea also have a lot going in their favour.
The players have absorbed Maresca’s tactical ideas at remarkable speed and, on sheer talent alone, the Blues ought to be able to finish in the Champions League spaces even if inexperience prevents a title challenge.
Chelsea probably have the deepest squad in the league, too, and coupled with Maresca’s willingness to select fringe players in the Europa Conference League, they should remain fresh throughout the season.
What’s more, Chelsea have started brightly despite having arguably the toughest set of fixtures of any of the European hopefuls. Easier matches leading up to Christmas could see them consolidate their grip in the top four.
Brighton and Newcastle on track
Looking at a mini-league of the teams who are currently placed from third to 13th indicates who can amass the most points from head-to-head matches and join the top two in qualifying for Europe.
Matches between teams in third to 13th
| 2024/25 | Matches | Points |
| Chelsea | 6 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 6 | 11 |
| Newcastle | 7 | 10 |
| Fulham | 5 | 9 |
| Spurs | 6 | 9 |
| Arsenal | 6 | 8 |
| Man Utd | 6 | 8 |
| Bournemouth | 5 | 6 |
| Aston Villa | 5 | 5 |
| Nott'm Forest | 5 | 3 |
| Brentford | 4 | 3 |
Chelsea topping this mini-league table adds weight to the argument that Maresca’s side can continue on their trajectory and claim Champions League football.
It also suggests Nottingham Forest, Brentford and AFC Bournemouth could regress, while Brighton & Hove Albion and Newcastle United can climb.
Fulham might argue their case, but Marco Silva’s side face a difficult run-up to Christmas, including consecutive fixtures against Tottenham Hotspur (A), Brighton (H), Arsenal (H) and Liverpool (A) from the start of December.
By contrast, the fixture lists for Brighton and Newcastle are very inviting.
Both clubs are in form. Both have midweeks free of European football. Both will expect to win most of their matches before Christmas Day.
If anyone other than Arsenal or Chelsea is to break away from the pack towards the end of this year, it will be Brighton or Newcastle.
Villa and Spurs should stabilise for top six
There are too many flaws for Brentford, Bournemouth, Forest and Fulham to realistically attain European football.
Brentford and Bournemouth don’t have especially high points tallies. They are benefiting from low numbers among the teams above them, while Fulham and Forest have looming fixture lists that could burst their respective bubbles.
That leaves three clubs yet to be discussed: Villa, Spurs and Man Utd. All three have been inconsistent enough to suggest their battle with Brighton and Newcastle will go to the wire.
Villa’s midfield looks a little beleaguered without Douglas Luiz, and their current Champions League campaign appears to be affecting domestic performances as Unai Emery’s side slip down the table.
There is certainly nothing to worry about for Villa fans, but draws against Ipswich Town, Bournemouth and Man Utd point to an absence of the ruthlessness that defined them in 2023/24.
For Spurs, it’s a case of one step forward and one step back: big wins against Man Utd and Villa have been offset by defeats to Crystal Palace and Ipswich.
Since the opening-weekend draw with Leicester City, Spurs have won half of their league matches and lost the other half. They are almost symmetrically inconsistent.
Still, Villa and Spurs have the experience and quality to stabilise over the months to come. They are favourites to complete the top six along with Chelsea and Arsenal. Or at least they were until Man Utd changed their manager.
Man Utd dark horses for top-four finish
Ruben Amorim could hit the ground running. United’s improved attacking performances under Ruud van Nistelrooy, who won three of his four matches as interim manager, was a reminder of just how much talent Amorim has at his disposal.
And he is fortunate to take charge of a team who are only four points off third place.
If United beat Ipswich and Everton in Amorim’s first two matches in charge, all of a sudden they will be among the favourites to qualify for the Champions League.
Of course, a dramatic tactical shift – not just to a hard-pressing, fast-transition way of playing but also a move to a 3-4-3 – is likely to come with teething problems, but the sheer number of teams involved in the race for Europe suggests that Amorim will have plenty of wiggle room.
Eleven matches in, one thing we know for certain is anybody can beat anybody. Inconsistent form is the new normal, suggesting a relatively low points tally – somewhere in the 60s – could be enough for Champions League football.
Man Utd, then, are almost on track already. In a more competitive field than ever before, the clubs with the strongest squads are the likeliest to rise.